貪婪的人類

伴隨油價高企而來的經濟收縮理應降低人類對石油的需求，為了免受高油價之苦，企業和政府在高油價的現實環境下應該有更較大的誘因投入更多資源發展可再生能源，一方面可減低對石油的依賴，而另一方面可以緩和全球暖化，可謂一舉兩得。但觀乎西方國家對北極大幅溶冰的焦點都落在天然資源的爭奪上，對這全球暖化的警號視而不見，人類貪婪的本性表露無為。

大國領袖有道德責任推動國際社會化解人類可能面對的危險，全球暖化是其中之一。決策者應以人類長遠福祉為依歸，而不應該被短期利益所矇蔽；從G8會議中各成員國對二氧化碳的排放限額各執一詞，就可見大國的領袖是何等短視。人類文明能否廷續就視乎我們的領袖是否具備前瞻性眼光，但現實是今天人類不比當年復活島上的波尼尼西亞人高明，他們建造巨型石像以彰顯部落領袖的威望，甚至不惜把樹林最後的一根木都砍掉，大禍臨頭而不自知，最後結局當然是整個文明的衰亡。

下一個衝突熱點北極 – 北極

全球暖化加速北極冰川的溶解，正當科學家和環保人士擔心北極大幅溶冰對氣候和生態系統有何影響之際，西方大國領袖的關注點卻是蘊藏在冰層下天然資源的開採權。處處顯露大國野心的俄羅斯已率先利用潛艇把一面俄羅斯國旗放下北極海床以宣示主權，此舉引起鄰國如丹麥、挪威、加拿大和美國的不滿，甚至揚言不惜加強在北冰洋的海軍力量以確保自身利益不受威脅。

西方列強除了對冰川下的天然資源虎視眈眈外，更覬覦北極大幅溶冰後所形成的天然航道的控制權。俄羅斯的舉動已把半隻熊爪伸入這天然運河，再者俄羅斯的經濟收入十分依賴石油和天然氣的出口，對北極的天然資源又豈會輕易放過。冰川溶解使人類更容易踏足此荒蕪之地，大大降低開探油氣資源的成本，在石油資源短缺和維護自身國家利益的大前提下，不難想像北極將會成為列強爭逐之地，零聲的軍事衝突將無可避免。

The Arctic – an emerging ‘flashpoint’

Global warming is getting worse and the rise in temperature causes ice-caps in the Arctic region to melt at an unprecedented speed. Scientists and environmentalists are worried about the impacts brought about by the massive loss of ice-caps on the global climate and Arctic’s ecosystem. However, leaders of Western powers only keep their eyes on natural resources locked up under the molten ice-caps. Russia’s jaunty placing of a flag on the sea-bed in an attempt to claim the sovereignty of the territory has provoked America, Demark, Norway and Canada, which could also like to claim a slice of the region. Amid them some are going to flex their muscles by launching naval exercise to fence off the potential contenders. Contending nations do not only care about the oil and gas resources, but also the control of the natural canal opened up due to the massive loss of ice-caps.

Russia’s economy relies heavily on the export of oil and gas. Any expectation of Russia to loosen her grip on the Arctic region is unrealistic. Melting ice-caps in the Arctic makes this barren place more accessible and this implies a lower cost of tapping oil and gas in the region. Oil and gas will still be in short supply in the foreseeable future. Owing to the increasing eagerness of contending powers to secure self-economic interest, it is not difficult to expect the Arctic region to become a new ‘flashpoint’, where occasional military conflicts could be inevitable.

種概念的疑惑

環球科學(Scientific American)六月號一篇關於物種分類的文章值得同學細閱。一直以來我對教科書上種的定義都深信不疑，這定義是由德國鳥類學家(Ernst Mayr)於1942年提出，根據他的說法，種是一系列種群，而種群內的成員能夠互相交配繁殖，却不能與其他種群的成員成功交配繁殖。但大自然很多物種分類的例子都不能簡單套用這教科書的標準定義，生物學家對一些看來差異相當大却能夠正常交配繁殖的種依然大感不解。例如科學家最近在墨西哥發現300萬年前從共同袓先分化出來的兩種猴子(長毛吼猴和懶猴)經常進行文配繁殖，哪麼牠們能夠被稱為兩個種嗎？

而最大的問題是有些物種根本沒有任何有性繁殖，比如說一種海洋動物蛭形輪虫(bdelloid rotifer)在一億年前就放棄了有性繁殖，哪麼利用生殖隔離的概念來定義輪虫的種群又是否恰當呢？微生物的分類就更加複雜，細菌不像動物那樣交配，但它們可以以其他方法進行基因交換。例如病毒可以把基因由一個宿主帶到另一個宿主，它們從完全不同的微生物種群獲得基因，因此教科書有關種的定義就完全用不上。

要解決這概念上的混亂，生物學家開始把進化史與分子、生態行為和生物學數據綜合一起提出系統發育分類，透過研究物種的進化史、生態作用和基因序列把牠們分門別類。釐清種定義的概念不單是為了命名權之爭，不恰當的命名可能把”人丁興旺”的動物列入瀕危物種名單而導致資源浪費，美國政府的紅狼保育計劃就是一個活生生的例子。紅狼其實只是東加拿大狼的一個南部種群而且為數眾多美國政府花費大量資源挽救一種離瀕危尚遠的動物，所造成的資源浪費可想而知。

1/48 RAAF Spitfire

Here is the Hasegawa's 1/48 RAAF Spitfire.

Spitfire near completion

The 1/48 RAAF Spitfire was weathered by oil wash. The surface will be coated with a mat finish later.

通脹猛於虎

接二連三的工潮反映勞工階層對工資被不斷升溫的通脹蠶食感到十分不滿，加上臨近選舉，代表勞工界的議員為求爭取選票，在推動工潮上一定不遺餘力，看來一連串的工業行動將接踵而來。

導致通脹的成因是多方面的，除了因為油價和糧價高企外，港元匯價隨美元貶值亦是主因之一。由於香港奉行聯繫匯率機制，面對通脹政府可做的事不多；美國因為次按問題而面臨經濟哀退，但油價急升和以往過度寬鬆的貨幣政策使美國同時面對通脹威脅。在應付哀退和遏止通脹這兩難選擇中，美國政府似乎傾向前者，聯儲局為了挽救奄奄一息的樓市，將不大可能於短期內大幅加息以遏抑通脹。

通脹對低下階層的打擊最為顯著。在2003年沙士期間，資方一句「共渡時艱」打工仔就被迫勒緊褲帶，無奈接受減薪。但近幾年經濟持續增長，低下勞動階層非但無法享受到經濟復甦的好處，除了要超時工作，工資的升幅更進不上通脹，扣除衣、食、住、行等的必需開支，薪水已所餘無幾，又哪有閒錢去應付不時之需？

政府的紓解民困措施只能起短暫作用，一些結構性的社會問題如果未能妥善解決，民間的不滿情緒將無法疏導。而社會缺乏向上流動機會是其中一個問題的癥結，由於缺乏經濟轉型所需的技能，低級勞動階層未能受惠於經濟復甦，他們的工作朝不保夕，在缺乏議價能力的情況下工資不斷被剥削。在我們父母的年代，就算沒有高學歷和專業資格都可以有出人頭地的一天。學一門技能，然後自行創業都有機會闖出一片天地。今天我們的城市已經被一座座的大型商場所佔據，除了坐擁雄厚資金的連鎖店外，小本創業者根本難以生存，城市’商場化’除了削弱社區文化多元性外，更窒礙小市民創業的機會，間接阻礙社會流動，這一點我們的規劃部門絕不可忽視。

社區組織在當前熾熱的通脹環境組織「格價兵團」、成立「食物銀行」以解低下階層的燃眉之急，此舉實在值得稱道。如果政府多接納社區組織的意見，在維持社區文化多樣性多下工夫，並大力推動非政府組織創辦社會企業將有助低下階層改善就業機會。

社會貧富懸殊的現況已經人所共知，在通脹持續的情況下，貧富階層的矛盾將更趨表面化。政府不能迥避問題，在民生政策上更不能偏幫大財團，應認真考慮制定公平競爭法並把保持社區文化多元性作為城市規劃的其中一項主要要求，在社區規劃和法制上建立公平和多元的營商環境。大型跨國企業亦可在公司政策上發揮企業社會責任精神，為低下層職級訂立合理的工資和最高工時，此舉除了提升企業的公眾形象亦有助緩衝社會的階級矛盾。

政府高層常常把和諧社會掛在嘴邊，但和諧社會不是說說便行，而是依賴社會各界努力建構起來。

探究問題：

(1) 通脹對哪一個社會階層的生活素質影響最大？試加以解釋。
(2) 有論者認為高通脹是世界性的趨勢，政府可做的事不多。你多大程度上同意這說法？試加以解釋。
(3) 假如你是公司的管理層，你會用什麼理據拒絕工人加薪的要求？為什麼？
(4) 有論者認為政府支持發展社會企業有違一直以來所奉行的積極不干預政策，破壞自由的營商環境。你同意這說法嗎？試加以解釋。
(5) 有代表勞工界的議員認為由於沒有集體談判權，工人發動罷工要承擔很大的風險，因此有必要進一步加強保障工人罷工的權利。你是否同意？試加以解釋。

The scourge of inflation really hurts

The recent waves of strike action have been the sign of discontent expressed by the lower class, who have their actual income badly shrunk by soaring inflation. With the approach of election, legislators from the Labor Sector must take a more active role in staging industrial action in order to secure votes in the coming election. It is therefore a reasonable guess to expect more strikes to come.

The causes of inflation are multiple. Rising oil and food prices are to blame of course. In fact, however, the depreciation of the U.S. currency is the actual culprit behind the scene. As our currency is pegged with the greenback, there is nothing our monetary policy can do to deal with inflation. The credit crunch and dying property market will drag the U.S economy to the brink of recession. At the same time, the rising oil prices and depreciated U.S currency have fueled inflation. The Fed has to choose between rescuing the country from recession and curbing inflation. As the Fed seems to favor the former, the chance for the Fed to raise the interest rate to a level sufficient to curb inflation (2% above the CPI) is unlikely in the backdrop of shrinking property market.

The lower classes feel the hit of inflation most. During the SARS outbreak in 2003, working classes had their salaries cut to save their jobs and the companies as well. Despite the recovery of local economy since 2003, lower classes have seldom benefited from the growth. Instead, they have to work even harder and longer to secure their jobs with wages being eaten up by inflation and not a penny is left after deduction of all necessary expenditure from their income.

The government’s ‘relief policies’ only have short-term effect. If the government fails to tackle the structural problems in our society, the grumpy emotion of people will still prevail. One of the major problems facing us is the lack of upward mobility in our society. Financial services are one of the major pillars of our economy and seem to be the only sector strongly backed by the government. Economic growth in recent years has only benefited those professionals working in the fields of finance, accounting and banking. Workers from the lower class have no way to gain a share of the growth. Without much bargaining power, they find it hard to keep their jobs even with their wages slashed by unscrupulous bosses.

In those good old days, college degrees and professional accreditations were not the only elements leading to a successful career life. To be an apprentice and acquire a particular skill could possibly pave the way to become a business owner. Opportunities for upward mobility were everywhere. Today our city is embraced by blocks of shopping malls, which only favor the giant chain-stores to do business but not the small ones. As the social landscape of our city tends to become homogenous, less business opportunities are available for those who want to move up the social ladder. A society with a cultural diversity favors the development of diverse economic activities, which facilitate social mobility among the lower classes.

The efforts of non-governmental organizations to ease the pain of the poor at the time of fierce inflation such as the setting up of ‘food banks’ and ‘price busters’ are most welcome. If they move a step forward and work in collaboration with the government to start more social enterprise and keep society vibrant by maintaining its cultural diversity. There will be more ways out for the poor to escape from their plight.

The wide gap between rich and poor is nothing unfamiliar to Hong Kong people. The conflict has surfaced in the wake of soaring inflation. The government should not turn a blind eye to the problem. It is the government’s responsibility to maintain a just business environment and provide a level playing field for all participants. The enactment of ‘Competition law’ should be given a thorough consideration. A culturally-diverse society is conducive to cultivation of vibrant economic activities. Officials from the Planning Department should put the maintenance of cultural heterogeneity on top of the agenda before launching the urban renewal projects. Big business owners can demonstrate their corporate social responsibility by implementing ‘minimum wages’ and ‘maximum working hours’ policies for the lower working classes. This not only gives the public the positive image of the companies but also effectively sooth the conflict between rich and poor.

Harmonious society is far from reality if the government only pays lip service to its promise. It can only be built and sustained by the concerted and devoted efforts from all parties concerned.