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Friday, March 28, 2008

居高不下的米價正動搖亞洲國家的政治穩定

今期經濟學人一篇關於米價急升對亞洲各國政局的影響值得細閱。 稻米是亞洲人的主要糧食, 相對於OCED 國家, 糧食價格佔貧窮國家CPI一個頗大的比重 , 糧價急升意味著居住在亞洲的貧窮大多數將面對更大的生活壓力。

近年糧價急升是由多項原因引起; 各國加強開發生物燃料使耕地大為吃緊, 在中印冒起的中產階層對糧食的需求更是有增無減, 亞洲各國的工業發展吸納了農村大量的勞動力, 城市發展及其引起的污染問題使可耕作土地加速消失 。在供應吃緊而需求劇增的情況下, 糧價焉有不升之理?

除了上述原因, 部分亞洲國家為了保障本地農民的生計 ,大幅增加稻米的入口稅,但諷刺地 ,這原本對農民有利的政策竟成為米價暴升的幫凶。

居高不下的米價和其他商品價格把亞洲窮國的CPI 堆向高峰 ,一群餓著肚子的大多數正是亞洲極權國家統治者的惡夢,亞洲各國正期待新一場的綠色革命以餵飽饑餓的人民, 否則流血政變將無可避免。

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Soaring rice price sows the seed of social unrest in Asia

An article in the current issue of Economist commenting the political consequence in Asia as a result of soaring rice price is worth reading. Rice is the staple diet in most Asian countries. Unlike those OCED members, food prices constitute a major portion of the CPI in poor nations. Soaring food prices mean a great blow to the livelihood of those impoverished - the majority of the population in poor nations.

The recent rocketing rise in food prices can be attributed to various reasons. The great demand for bio fuel implies that an increasing acreage of farmlands have been used for planting crops for the purpose of alcoholic fermentation. The consequence is the limited availability of farmlands for the plantation of food crops. Expanding middle classes in rising powers such as China and India spur the growth of demand for imported food and this contributes to the rise in food prices.

Rapid industrialization in Asian countries in recent years has drawn labour from farming to industries. Farmlands have been surrendered for urbanization in the process of economic development. Tainted water and pollution are also the culprit of poor crop yield.

Apart from the above mentioned causes, the rice import tariffs ,intended to protect the poor rice farmers in some Asian countries, now limit the rice supply and hurt the majority of rice eaters in the nation .

The soaring prices of rice and other commodities push up the CPI of poor Asian countries. A nation full of hungry people is prone to any political unrest. A new green revolution is desperately needed for those nations or revolutions of the blood-stained variety will come for sure.