南非的哺乳動物

Cormorant in South Africa

南非野生珍珠雞

非洲國家發展的困局

非洲有豐富的礦產和石油資源，但為何富饒的天然資源未能幫助非洲國家脫貧？有自然命定論者認為非洲國家之所以發展緩慢是由先天因素引起的。如果我們追溯人類的農業發展史，就不難發現非洲的農業發展是遠遠落後於歐亞大陸，正如戴蒙博士在《槍炮、細菌與鋼鐵》一書所提出，缺乏可被馴化的動植物和合適的氣候是非洲農業發展滯後的原因。成熟的農業社會是人類文明發展的先決條件，因為農業改變我們祖先狩獵和採集的生活模式，當食物供應充足而穩定才能養活更多從事非農業活動的人口，只有這樣人類文明才可發展起來，但當前非洲國家的貧困是否只應歸咎於自然命定論呢？

自然命定論只可解釋為何非洲文明發展較其他地方落後，但不能完全解釋當今非洲國家經濟發展落後的原因，一些非洲國家例如贊比亞，擁有豐富的礦產資源，當權者滿以為單靠天然資源就可為國家帶來可觀的收入，所以不思進取，無心亦無力投放資源發展礦產以外的產業。來自礦產的收入確實在初期為贊比亞帶來短暫的繁榮，政府有條件透過減稅以換取人民的支持，同時亦傾向把更多的資源投放在礦產業，但政策傾斜的後果是養肥一群既得利益集團，假如礦產供應源源不絕，價格有升無降，這種以出產資源為主的經濟發展模式可繼續運行，但現實卻是殘酷的，資源價格的波動使政府財政大失預算，當資源價格下跌，政府收入便無以為繼，加稅成了唯一的選擇，人民的怨氣之大可想而知，當人民的期望和政府所能提供的出現嚴重落差，社會不安就無可避免，內戰和動亂頻繁，經濟發展亦無從談起。但當政府想發展其他產業以改變現況，就不免觸動既得利益集團的神經，由於政府的認受性是來自龐大利益集團的支持，因此政府缺乏誘因和政治決心調整產業結構，結果經濟發展一落千丈，翻身無期。

與其說非洲的貧困是先天注定，不如說是人為的。豐富的天然資源並不能保證一個國家的經濟永續發展，要擺脫所謂 “天然資源的詛咒” 政府應善用透過出口天然資源獲得的財富於基建、教育和科技的發展，為未來持續的經濟發展打穩根基。

The plight of development in Africa

Some people say Africa is destined to lag behind in the process of development. If we look back the farming history of human, we can see that farming in Africa appeared far later than that in Eurasia. As mentioned in Diamond’s famous book, “Gun, Germ and Steel”, unfavorable climate and absence of potentially domesticated plants and animals are the main reasons of backwardness in agricultural development. Transformation from hunter-gatherer to agrarian mode of living is the key to the advancement of civilization. Farming allowed more stable food supply and therefore supported the living of those who might not practice farming. They could take part in activities that were conducive to the advancement of civilization. But can we simply conclude that only“geodeterminism” is to blame for the poverty of most African countries.

“Geodeterminism” may be part of the story but it can’t be the only reason that explains the failure of economic development. Zambia, an African country endowed with copper mines, is a vivid illustration of “natural resource curse”. Just like other resource-rich countries, leaders of Zambia once believed that natural resources could bring enormous revenues to the country, lifting millions from poverty. There was a brief success in economy built upon mining industries. With economic success firmly hinged on the fate of mining sectors, the government channeled most resources to support mining industries at the expense of those that should normally be spent on public services such as education and health care. Policies in favor of the mining industry only fed a group of oligarch, which became a major impediment in the subsequent economic reform that would benefit society as a whole but hurt a minority of vested interests. The success of resource based economy would have sustained as long as the assumptions of upward price trend and low price fluctuation remained valid. The above assumptions were in fact far from reality. Plummeting copper price was a blow to the economy of Zambia. Raising tax rate was the only option left to keep the government functioning. Owing to the huge gap between people’s expectation and what the government could actually deliver, social unrest and even civil war were inevitable and this entailed a vicious cycle of war and poverty. When the ruling party planned to appropriate more money for improving infrastructure and public services of the country that would lay the foundation for the development of a more balanced economic structure, resistance from vested interests would stem any reform from its budding stage.

Natural resource endowments are not always a bless to a country. Poor governance makes the ‘natural resource curse’ a self-fulfilling prophecy. The government should use the money well especially in the areas of education and infrastructure because they are the foundation essential for a more balanced economic and social development.